Business & Economics
Each year, CompTIA releases a consensus industry forecast, based on input from IT industry executives. This wisdom of the crowds approach balances the opinions of the overly optimistic with the overly pessimistic, yielding a best-fit forecast.
For 2013, CompTIA projects a growth rate of 3% for the global IT industry, with upside potential of 5.2%. The forecast for the U.S. market is slightly lower – 2.9% with upside potential of 4.9%. For the U.S. market, this translates to $27.6 billion to $46.6 billion in potential new revenue for the year.
Several opposing forces will be at play in 2013; affecting which side of the forecast the industry hits 12 months from now. CompTIA research consistently shows strong demand for a wide-range of IT products and services, as businesses increasingly view technology as a vital competitive advantage.
Reaching the upside of the forecast will require macroeconomic stability, steady business confidence and customers that are financially healthy. Recent indicators suggest there is a good chance of this happening.
While the upside looks obtainable, a few red flags must be acknowledged. IT industry executives voice concern about downward pressure on prices. Some categories may see large unit volume sales, but modest revenue growth due to falling prices. The other challenge entails customers shifting from higher-priced products or services, to lower-priced options. For example, foregoing a refresh on a $1,250 laptop and instead buying employees a sub $500 tablet.
Any growth outlook must be considered against the backdrop of the creative destruction taking place in the IT industry. The interplay of macro trends, technology trends and channel trends will shape the information technology landscape in the short-term, while setting longer-term developments in motion. Notable disrupters, including cloud, mobility, social, big data and the Internet of Things will continue to disrupt, inevitably in some unanticipated ways. Expect the year ahead to see further evolution and progression on many fronts, including the following examples:
Macro Trend: Progress Along Innovation Learning Curve Pays Dividends
Technology Trend: Companies Begin Taking Cloud Computing for Granted
Channel Trend: Convergence Creates Strange Bedfellows
See the report for additional trends in each of the three major categories and more insights. CompTIA’s IT Industry Outlook 2013 was developed with input from a survey of 518 U.S. information technology firms. The data was collected during December 2012.
CompTIA members can read the full report here.